Monday, September 15, 2008

Polling in 2008
Recently, I've been annoyed every time I hear that poll results show McCain getting closer to Obama. I suspect that many polls are not accurate and then their results, correct or not, are used to sway voters in one direction or the other by the media.

Here's why polls suck: the vast majority of them use telephone land-lines to contact voters. In 2008 this method is null and void because the majority of young people (35 and under) that I know do not have land lines. One article estimated that by the end of 2008, 25% of people of all ages would no longer have a landline. I would estimate that number is even larger for young people (35 and under) - say closer to 75%. And in this election, i would guess the age of the respondents makes a big difference in who they're voting for.

So although many argue that the difference between cell and landline polling is negligible - it's clearly not. What do you think?

References:
  1. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1843
  2. http://www.america.gov/st/washfile-english/2007/November/20071113154038attocnich0.7833979.html

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